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Tech Layoffs Forecast: Traders Predict More Cuts in 2026

Following Coinbase's announcement of a 14% workforce cut due to AI and crypto market downturns, prediction markets are forecasting continued job reductions in the tech sector. Traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket assign high probabilities to more layoffs occurring in 2026 than in 2025. This trend is echoed by recent actions from major companies, including Meta and Amazon, which have also announced significant staff reductions. Furthermore, BLS data confirms a substantial decline in employment within the information sector as of March.

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Tech Layoffs Forecast: Traders Predict More Cuts in 2026

Following Coinbase's 14% workforce reduction, prediction markets are signaling a continued wave of layoffs across the technology sector, with higher predicted job losses in 2026 than in 2025.

Recent Tech Layoffs Signal Industry Contraction

Coinbase announced a significant workforce reduction on Tuesday, citing both the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the recent downturn in cryptocurrency prices as primary drivers. This move has prompted market observers to view the layoffs as a broader trend affecting the tech industry.

Other major technology firms have recently implemented substantial staff cuts:

  • Block: Cited AI as a reason for laying off nearly half of its workforce in February.
  • Meta Platforms: Reduced its workforce by 10% (approximately 8,000 employees) in April while simultaneously increasing investment in AI.
  • Amazon: Laid off 16,000 corporate workers in January, attributing the cuts to an effort to streamline bureaucracy.
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Market Predictions Point to Continued Job Cuts

Prediction markets are quantifying the expected trend, suggesting job losses will accelerate in the coming years.

  • Traders on Kalshi assign a 92% probability to more tech layoffs occurring in 2026 compared to 2025.
  • Similarly, traders on Polymarket give an 87% probability to increased tech layoffs in 2026 versus 2025.

Broader Labor Market Data

Official labor statistics corroborate the downward trend in the sector. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey:

  • As of March, the information sector recorded 178,000 layoffs.
  • Total employment in the information sector has seen a marked decline from its post-pandemic peak of over 3.1 million jobs, falling to just under 2.8 million workers in March.
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