Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are reportedly moving to target the perpetual futures market in the U.S., a highly leveraged and volatile segment of crypto trading. This convergence could challenge major platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase by allowing users to bet on real-world events using crypto derivatives. While some analysts view this as a natural market evolution, others point to the high risk associated with perps, which utilize auto-deleveraging mechanisms. Regulatory bodies, such as the CFTC, are actively working to bring these complex derivatives onshore. The ultimate success and expansion of this model will depend on regulatory oversight and the ability to apply these concepts to non-crypto asset classes.
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Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly targeting the perpetual futures market in the U.S., a segment known for its high risk and significant volume within crypto trading. This potential convergence could reshape how Americans trade on real-world events and challenge established financial platforms.
The Rise of Perpetual Futures (Perps)
Perpetual futures, often called "perps," are derivative contracts that do not expire. Their popularity surged following shifts in the crypto landscape.
Market Dominance: Perps currently account for over 70% of the total trading volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko.
Volume Growth: Data from CryptoQuant indicated that in 2025, perps trading volume reached a nominal $61.7 trillion, marking a 29% increase from 2024. For comparison, spot crypto trading volume hit $18.6 trillion in 2025, up 9% year-over-year.
Market Convergence and Competition
The intersection of prediction markets and leveraged trading introduces several dynamics:
Reshaping Trading: It could fundamentally alter how U.S. users speculate on real-world outcomes.
Platform Competition: Prediction markets could enter direct competition with major financial platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase.
Skeptic Concerns: Critics question whether combining leveraged products with prediction markets will increase volatility and draw crypto closer to mainstream finance.
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Industry Perspectives and Adoption
Industry analysts view this move through different lenses, ranging from natural extension to defensive positioning.
Natural Extension: Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, suggested this is a "natural product extension" for existing prediction market users, noting that established platforms are difficult to abandon.
Defensive Strategy: Dan Dolev of Mizuho suggested the move might be more defensive than offensive, anticipating that major players like Robinhood will eventually build these capabilities themselves.
Mainstream Integration: Robinhood has already launched a Prediction Markets hub via a partnership with Kalshi, which saw 11 billion contracts traded by over a million customers in 2025.
Regulatory Scrutiny and U.S. Onshoring Efforts
The inherent risk of perpetual futures has drawn regulatory attention.
Leverage Risk: The high leverage associated with perps, combined with the riskiness of the contracts, has historically kept them outside the U.S. market.
Auto-Deleveraging: Perps traded outside the U.S. utilize auto-deleveraging systems, which can cause significant, rapid drawdowns in crypto prices.
CFTC Action: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stated its intent to onshore "true perpetual derivatives," aiming to create a pathway for these novel products under appropriate safeguards.
Future Outlook and Risks
The success of these expansions hinges on product structuring—including pricing, settlement, and margining. Furthermore, prediction markets themselves face scrutiny over allegations of insider trading or data manipulation. If successful, experts suggest the next logical step could be applying perps concepts to broader asset classes, such as the S&P 500 or commodities.
