Israeli sources warn that a potential US-Iran agreement under Donald Trump could be inadequate if it fails to address core security issues, potentially stabilizing the Iranian regime. The primary concern centers on a deal that leaves Iran's nuclear program and regional capabilities largely intact.
Core Israeli Concerns Over Potential Deal
Israeli officials are deeply worried that any agreement reached by the Trump administration with Iran might overlook critical threats, such as ballistic missile capabilities and support for regional proxy groups. According to sources speaking to CNN, a deal that only partially addresses these issues would leave Israel feeling that its war objectives remain unmet.
Key points of concern include:
- Incomplete Resolution: A deal bypassing issues like missiles and proxies would be viewed by Israel as an incomplete outcome.
- Regime Stabilization: A partial agreement easing economic pressure could stabilize the Iranian regime and provide it with necessary cash flow.
- Focus Gap: There is a noted divergence between Israel's perceived need for comprehensive security guarantees and the apparent diplomatic inclination of the US side.
Shifting Israeli Objectives: From Broad Goals to Uranium
Initially, Israeli goals were comprehensive, aiming to dismantle Iran's entire nuclear infrastructure, halt missile development, and neutralize proxy networks. However, the focus has narrowed significantly.
- Early Demands (February): Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially outlined five conditions, including removing all enriched uranium, dismantling enrichment capabilities, addressing missiles, dismantling proxies, and robust inspections.
- Current Priority: By recent statements, Netanyahu has narrowed the focus, emphasizing the paramount importance of removing all enriched material and dismantling enrichment capabilities, with no mention of missiles or proxies.
Some sources suggest Israel understands that missile and proxy issues are likely 'off the table' in current diplomatic drafts, leading Netanyahu to prioritize uranium as the most immediate threat.
Diplomatic Tensions and Alternatives
While the White House has asserted that US officials 'hold all the cards' and that Iran's capabilities are already degraded, the path to a deal remains uncertain.
- US Stance: A White House spokeswoman stated that Iran's missiles are destroyed, facilities dismantled, and its navy sunk, citing economic blockades as ongoing pressure.
- Israeli Caution: Netanyahu is reportedly relying on direct communication with Trump, while remaining cautious about exerting too much pressure, fearing it could push Trump toward a premature deal.
- Alternative Scenarios: Israeli officials have indicated they would be satisfied with no deal, or continued pressure, suggesting a readiness for escalation if negotiations stall.
Future Negotiations and Caveats
Discussions have touched upon complex elements, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the structure of the nuclear agreement. Israel is reportedly pushing for clauses that would distinguish any future deal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), specifically demanding a full prohibition on enrichment during any 'sunset' period and the dismantling of key underground sites like Fordow.
