Global jet fuel supplies face significant disruption due to the ongoing instability stemming from the Middle East, threatening summer travel plans across Asia and Europe. The blockade of key shipping lanes has severely impacted the flow of refined products necessary for air travel.
Impact of Strait of Hormuz Blockade
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that exports from the Persian Gulf were historically the largest single source of jet fuel supply to the global market. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively cut off these vital exports.
- European Vulnerability: Europe is particularly affected, as approximately 20% of the continent's jet fuel historically originated from the Persian Gulf.
- Asian Reliance: Before the conflict, about 90% of oil exported from the Gulf through the strait was destined for Asia.
Global Supply Chain Strain
The disruption is creating cascading issues across refining sectors, even in regions not directly at the blockade's epicenter.
- Asian Refineries: Refineries in Asia, including those in China, South Korea, and India, are struggling to meet both domestic and international demand because they are facing shortages of crude oil feedstocks.
- Market Indicators: Data from Kpler showed a sharp decline in global jet fuel exports, plunging 30% in April compared to the previous year. Furthermore, jet fuel loaded onto tankers last week dropped by 50% compared to the same week in 2025.
Warnings Issued for Europe and Airlines
Industry bodies and major carriers have issued warnings regarding potential shortages and rising costs.
- EU Alert: The Airports Council International Europe warned the 27-nation economic union of a potential "systemic jet fuel shortage" if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- Airline Actions: Major carriers, such as Lufthansa, have already been forced to cut flights—with Lufthansa slashing 20,000 short-haul flights through October—due in part to escalating fuel costs.
- Price Surge: According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel prices in Europe had doubled over the past year, reaching $187 per barrel as of May 1.
Outlook and Recovery Timeline
Industry experts suggest that normalizing supply chains will be a protracted process.
- Timeline Concerns: Experts estimate that restoring normal supply levels could take weeks or even months.
- Logistical Hurdles: Challenges include the need to inspect the strait for mines and the requirement for hundreds of ships to exit the Gulf and be redeployed globally to stabilize supply chains.
- Market Buffer: Analysts noted that the market had a temporary grace period, as tankers that departed the Persian Gulf just before the conflict arrived at their destinations in March and April, delivering necessary products.
