Gasoline Prices Surge After Trump Rejects Iran Deal

Gasoline prices are projected to rise above $5 per gallon after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. This political development spurred increased betting activity on the Kalshi platform regarding higher fuel costs. Consequently, oil prices saw a notable jump on Monday, May 11, 2026. West Texas Intermediate futures rose nearly 3% to over $98 a barrel, while Brent crude futures also advanced significantly. The market reaction reflects heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the region.

Gasoline prices are anticipated to rise above $5 per gallon following President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's counterproposal for ending the conflict. This development has significantly impacted market sentiment, leading traders to increase their wagers on higher fuel costs.

Market Reaction to Diplomatic Tensions

Following President Trump's declaration on Sunday that Iran's counterproposal to end the Middle East conflict was "totally unacceptable," market activity intensified over the subsequent 24 hours. This diplomatic setback has directly influenced commodity trading.

Betting Activity: Traders on the platform Kalshi have significantly increased their bets that gasoline prices will exceed $5.60 per gallon.
Presidential Statements: On Monday, the President further stated that the U.S. ceasefire arrangement with Iran was "on massive life support."

Crude Oil Price Movements

Oil markets reacted sharply to the geopolitical developments on Monday, May 11, 2026:

West Texas Intermediate (WTI): Futures for WTI jumped by nearly 3%, surpassing $98 per barrel.
Brent Crude: Brent crude futures advanced by close to 3%, reaching $104.27 per barrel.

These movements indicate heightened market expectations regarding future energy costs.