Eli Lilly is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings before the market opens on Thursday, making it a highly anticipated event for investors tracking the healthcare sector.
Wall Street Consensus Estimates
Based on an analysis of multiple financial analysts, the market has established specific expectations for Lilly's upcoming results:
- Earnings Per Share (Adjusted): Expected at $6.66.
- Revenue: Forecasted to reach $17.62 billion.
Key Growth Drivers: GLP-1 Blockbusters
The company's strong performance has been significantly fueled by its blockbuster drugs in the GLP-1 category, particularly for obesity and diabetes management. Analysts have provided estimates for the sales of these key products:
- Zepbound (Obesity Drug): Expected to generate overall sales of $4.04 billion, with an estimated $3.98 billion originating from the U.S. market.
- Mounjaro (Diabetes Drug): Projected to achieve worldwide sales of $7.26 billion, including an estimated $3.87 billion from the U.S.
Foundayo Launch and Market Focus
While the newly approved GLP-1 pill for obesity, Foundayo, launched in the second quarter, its sales figures will not be included in Thursday's report. Nevertheless, the rollout of Foundayo is anticipated to be a central topic of discussion during the earnings call. Executives are expected to address questions regarding its market momentum compared to competitors, such as Novo Nordisk's Wegovy.
Early prescription data, according to a recent note from Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger, suggest that the initial rollout of Foundayo has been "modest."
Future Outlook and Headwinds
During a late April interview, CEO David Ricks provided forward-looking statements regarding the company's trajectory and potential challenges:
- Global GLP-1 Adoption: Ricks estimated that global usage of GLP-1 drugs will increase from approximately 20 million patients at the end of last year to 30 million by the end of 2026.
- Pricing Pressure: The company anticipates facing pricing pressures due to factors including a drug pricing deal involving President Donald Trump and lower cash-pay prices for Zepbound.
- Mitigating Factors: Ricks noted that lower prices could potentially accelerate prescription volumes within the U.S. market.
