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Hormuz Strait Traffic: Traders Predict Delays Until July

Betting markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket suggest that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal commercial traffic levels until at least July. Current transit volumes remain low compared to pre-conflict averages, despite geopolitical tensions, including threats from the U.S. and statements from Iran. UBS analysts caution that reopening is difficult due to the ongoing U.S. naval blockade. Furthermore, bettors are tracking the broader economic outlook, with odds of a 2026 U.S. recession showing signs of decreasing.

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Hormuz Strait Traffic: Traders Predict Delays Until July

Betting markets suggest that normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not expected to resume for several months, with odds favoring a return by July.

Betting Market Predictions for Strait Normalization

Prediction platforms are tracking the timeline for the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-conflict traffic levels. The definition of 'normal traffic' used by these platforms is the seven-day moving average of transit calls, based on data from the IMF PortWatch.

  • Kalshi: Bettors currently assign a 42% probability of normal traffic by June 1st, increasing to 59% by July 1st, and 61% by August 1st.
  • Polymarket: This platform shows a 45% chance of normalization by the end of May, rising to 67% by the end of June.

Current Traffic Levels and Geopolitical Tensions

Actual vessel movement through the strait remains significantly below historical averages. On one reported day, only eight ships crossed, including three oil tankers, according to LSEG data. This contrasts sharply with the pre-war period, which typically saw over 100 ships daily.

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Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain high:

  • President Donald Trump issued threats regarding any vessel found laying mines in the strait.
  • Oil prices saw Brent crude climb above $100 per barrel.

Expert Analysis Points to Lingering Instability

Industry analysts caution that a swift reopening is unlikely. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas at UBS, noted that a reopening "remains elusive." She cited comments from Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stating that the strait will not reopen while the U.S. naval blockade remains in place.

Hoffmann-Burchardi added that these developments highlight the difficulty in resolving the conflict and normalizing energy flows, warning that prolonged high energy prices could negatively impact growth.

Broader Economic Outlook

Beyond the strait's status, bettors on Kalshi are also placing wagers on the broader economy. The platform's odds for a U.S. recession in 2026 (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth) are currently below 26%, a notable decrease from nearly 37% seen at the end of March.

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