As President Trump declares the Iran war nearing completion, Iranian missiles and drones persistently target Israel and Gulf allies, fueling regional fears of abandonment amid a unclear US exit strategy.
Iranian Attacks Continue Despite US Strikes
Iran has maintained its offensive capabilities despite over a month of US and Israeli airstrikes. From late February to April 2025, Iran launched nearly 500 missiles and over 2,000 attack drones at the United Arab Emirates, while also striking Israel. This sustained barrage underscores Tehran's resilience and ability to retaliate.
Trump's Timeline and Strategic Claims
Trump asserted that core objectives are "nearing completion" and the war could end within two to three weeks, citing "swift, overwhelming" victories that degraded Iranian military capacity. However, this optimistic timeline contrasts with ongoing attacks and alarms Gulf states about a premature US withdrawal.
Strait of Hormuz Control Concerns
Trump called for other nations to "take the lead" in securing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping lane Iran has blockaded since the conflict began. Iran has approved plans to regulate and toll shipping through the strait, potentially securing a lucrative revenue stream and enhanced control if US forces depart.
Divergent Gulf Ally Strategies
Gulf Arab states hold conflicting views on the US campaign:
- Saudi Arabia advocates for maximum degradation of Iranian missile and drone capabilities before any US exit.
- United Arab Emirates officials deem it "difficult" to coexist with Iran's missile program.
- Qatar, rich in natural gas, pushes for immediate de-escalation and a rapid return to business.
Unclear US Exit and Regional Risks
The extended US bombing campaign may not fully eliminate Iran's military assets, prolonging threats of retaliation against neighbors. With growing US public disapproval and market pressures, Trump seeks a face-saving exit without a coherent plan, risking a power vacuum and increased instability in the Gulf region.
