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Prediction Markets Forecast Months of Disrupted Oil Tanker Traffic in Strait of Hormuz

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket indicate a low probability of normal tanker traffic resuming in the Strait of Hormuz before April 2026, with odds improving to over 75% by July. This follows Iran's disruption of the key oil passage in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes. President Trump expressed optimism about a quick reopening and proposed joint U.S.-Iran control, but warned of continued bombing if no deal is reached. U.S. stock markets reacted positively to signs of potential negotiations. The strait, which handles 20% of global crude oil, remains a flashpoint in the ongoing conflict. Betting volumes on these predictions total around $100,000 on Kalshi.

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Prediction Markets Forecast Months of Disrupted Oil Tanker Traffic in Strait of Hormuz

Prediction markets indicate that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to normalize before mid-2026, with gradual improvements expected over the summer months.

Key Odds from Prediction Markets

  • On Kalshi, the probability of traffic returning to normal (defined as a seven-day moving average of over 60 transit calls, per IMF PortWatch) before April 15, 2026, is below 25%.
  • By June 1, 2026, odds rise to over 67%, and by July 1, 2026, to 76%.
  • Polymarket shows a 39% chance of normalization by the end of April 2026, down from earlier highs.
  • Approximately $100,000 has been wagered on Kalshi related to these predictions.

Strategic Importance and Current Disruption

  • The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil, with about 20% of the world's crude oil passing through before the conflict.
  • Iran has halted trade through the strait in response to U.S.-Israeli military strikes, including the killing of Iran's supreme leader early in the conflict.
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Trump's Comments on Reopening

  • President Trump stated that the strait could reopen "very soon" as part of a plan to delay attacks on Iran's energy grid for five days to facilitate negotiations.
  • He proposed that the U.S. and Iran could share joint control of the strait.
  • Trump warned that if a deal isn't reached, the U.S. would continue military action: "we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out."

Financial Market Response

  • U.S. stock markets rallied on Monday following Trump's comments about "productive" talks with Iran.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its longest weekly decline since 2023 but rebounded on Monday.
  • The Russell 2000 index entered a correction before recovering.

Additional Market Insights

  • A separate Kalshi market shows 30% odds on the seven-day average of transit calls exceeding 10 by April 1, 2026.
  • IMF PortWatch data showed total trade calls surpassing 100 on multiple days in February.

Disclosure

  • CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship, including a minority investment by CNBC in Kalshi.
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