The recent deployment of US amphibious warships and Marines to the Middle East has intensified speculation about a potential ground assault on Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export terminal. Experts caution that such an operation would confront robust Iranian defenses and raise strategic questions.
What is Kharg Island?
- Kharg Island is a five-mile-long coral outcrop off Iran's coast, about a third the size of Manhattan.
- It handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, with storage capacity of around 30 million barrels.
- Described by US officials as the "nexus for all the Iranian oil supply," its jetties accommodate oil supertankers.
- Alternative export routes, like the Jask terminal, are limited and not viable for large-scale exports, according to the IEA.
Risks of a US Ground Attack
- Iranian defenses include drones, ballistic missiles, and mines in the surrounding waters.
- US Marines would require ironclad air and sea superiority over at least 100 miles around the island.
- Significant risks: potential strikes on amphibious ships, need to evacuate or contain the island's population (mostly oil workers), and questionable strategic leverage.
- Experts like James Stavridis doubt that seizing Kharg would compel Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Concerns about further depleting US missile stockpiles and perceptions of oil seizure.