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Iran Rejects US Ceasefire, Reviews Peace Plan with Hormuz Demands

Iran has rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal but is reviewing a peace plan with conditions, including control over the Strait of Hormuz. Recession risks in the U.S. have surged, with Moody's forecasting a 48.6% probability and Goldman Sachs 30%. Stock markets rebounded on de-escalation hopes, and oil prices fell. The war is disrupting global supply chains, impacting fertilizer trade and prompting fuel surcharges. A delayed U.S.-China summit is rescheduled for mid-May, underscoring the conflict's economic repercussions.

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Iran Rejects US Ceasefire, Reviews Peace Plan with Hormuz Demands

Iran has dismissed a U.S. ceasefire proposal but is evaluating a peace plan that includes demands for control over the Strait of Hormuz, while escalating recession risks and supply chain disruptions affect global markets.

Iran's Stance on Conflict Resolution

  • Iranian state media declared the rejection of a U.S. ceasefire offer and specified conditions for ending the war, including granting Tehran authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran's foreign minister indicated no direct talks with the U.S. but confirmed an American peace proposal is under review.
  • Iran's UN mission stated that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the strategic strait.

Rising US Recession Probabilities

  • Moody's Analytics now estimates a 48.6% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its recession forecast to 30%.
  • These increases are attributed to geopolitical instability from the Iran war and potential labor market pressures.
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Market Movements and Oil Prices

  • U.S. equities rallied on Wednesday amid hopes for a ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran.
  • Oil prices declined following the market optimism.
  • U.S. stock futures remained steady overnight.

Global Economic and Supply Chain Impacts

  • Thailand halted efforts to cap fuel prices due to war-induced costs and will offer targeted support to vulnerable sectors.
  • The U.S. Postal Service is proposing an 8% fuel surcharge on package deliveries to counter rising transportation expenses.
  • About one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, facing potential bottlenecks.

Postponed US-China Summit

  • The White House announced a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be held in Beijing on May 14-15.
  • The meeting was delayed by approximately six weeks due to the Iran conflict.
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