BN
|
BusinessAI Desk•3 views

China's Trade Surplus Hits Record High as Exports Surge in Early 2026

China's trade surplus reached a record $213.62 billion in January-February 2026, with exports surging 21.8% and imports rising 19.8%, both significantly beating forecasts. Trade with the US fell 16.9%, while commerce with the EU and ASEAN grew nearly 20% each. This occurs as China sets a low GDP growth target of 4.5-5% and navigates ongoing US-China trade tensions, though relations have improved post-APEC. Experts attribute part of the export boom to the late Lunar New Year but see it as signaling limited short-term stimulus needs, amid rising consumer inflation.

Ad slot
China's Trade Surplus Hits Record High as Exports Surge in Early 2026

China's trade surplus surged to a record $213.62 billion in the first two months of 2026, with exports and imports both dramatically exceeding forecasts amid persistent US-China trade tensions.

Record Trade Surplus

  • The combined January-February trade balance reached $213.62 billion, surpassing the anticipated $179.6 billion and marking the highest surplus on record for this period.
  • This data is typically aggregated to minimize distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday shifts.

Export and Import Growth

  • Exports increased 21.8% year-on-year, far above the 7.1% growth predicted by Reuters economists.
  • Imports rose 19.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 6.3% rise, according to customs data released Wednesday.
Ad slot

Regional Trade Dynamics

  • Trade with the United States declined 16.9% to 609.71 billion yuan ($88.22 billion) year-on-year.
  • Trade with the European Union climbed 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan.
  • Trade with ASEAN grew 20.3% to 1.24 trillion yuan.

Economic Context and Expert Analysis

  • The trade figures follow China's consumer inflation rising to 1.3% in February, the strongest increase in over three years, fueled by extended holiday spending.
  • Premier Li Qiang set a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, the lowest range since the early 1990s.
  • Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management noted that the late Lunar New Year holiday may have boosted year-on-year growth rates but "probably cannot fully explain the surprise."
  • Zhang added that the robust export performance, combined with the modest growth target, suggests additional economic stimulus is unlikely in the near term.

US-China Trade Tensions

  • The data emerges against a backdrop of a trade war since 2025, with tariffs imposed and adjusted by both nations.
  • Relations improved after a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in October 2025.
  • Current US tariffs on Chinese goods stand at a global 10% level, but specific duties under Section 301 and Section 232 remain, reaching up to 100% for some products.
  • China Briefing reports an effective tariff rate near 30% for many Chinese exports to the US, the highest for any country.

— CNBC's Anniek Bao and Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.

Ad slot