Jack Manley of JPMorgan Asset Management warns of a volatile 2026 for global stocks, emphasizing the importance of staying invested despite market turbulence.
2026 Market Volatility Forecast
Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, predicts the stock market will be "extremely sensitive to headlines" in 2026, leading to a "choppy, bumpy ride." Current events, including the conflict in Iran, U.S. intervention in Venezuela, discussions about acquiring Greenland, and the collapse of the Japanese bond market, are fueling uncertainty.
March 2025 Performance
In March 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices each fell approximately 5%, capping off a losing quarter. This recent downturn underscores the market's sensitivity to geopolitical and economic developments.
Historical Evidence for Staying Invested
JPMorgan's analysis of S&P 500 data over the past two decades shows:
- Six of the market's 10 best days occurred within two weeks of its 10 worst days.
- The second-worst day of 2020 on March 12 was immediately followed by the second-best day of the year.
- Investors who remain fully invested earn the best returns, while those who move in and out of markets miss critical gains.
Recent Gains and 2026 Outlook
A set-it-and-forget-it S&P 500 index investment strategy delivered double-digit gains for three consecutive years: around 16% in 2025, 23% in 2024, and 24% in 2023. However, the S&P 500 is down about 3.5% year to date in 2026, indicating it may not match recent performance.
Diversification and Planning Advice
To navigate volatility, Manley and financial planner Brian Schmehil recommend:
- Diversifying across international equities, fixed income, real estate, and other uncorrelated assets.
- Maintaining a cash reserve for short-term goals and a clear long-term investment plan based on personal risk tolerance.
- Regularly rebalancing portfolios to stay aligned with objectives and avoid emotional decisions during market stress.
Long-Term Wealth Generation
Manley notes that while any given year may be challenging for U.S. stock investors, historical trends clearly show that U.S. equities are a strong vehicle for long-term wealth creation.
