As France approaches the second round of its legislative elections on July 7, the political landscape remains tense and unpredictable. Recent polls suggest that the far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, may fall short of securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly. According to a Harris Interactive poll, the RN is projected to win between 190 and 220 seats, significantly below the 289 seats required for a majority.This development comes despite the RN’s strong performance in the first round, where they secured 33.34% of the vote. In response to the RN’s surge, over 200 candidates from left-wing and centrist parties have withdrawn from the race, forming a ‘republican front’ to block the far-right’s path to power. This strategic move has reduced the number of three-way races from over 300 to around 109.Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has taken a nuanced stance, refusing to give specific voting instructions for the second round. He stated that he does not want to draw ‘signs of equality’ between La France Insoumise (LFI) and the RN, emphasizing that French citizens will make their own choices. However, Attal has consistently warned about the risks of an RN majority, urging voters to unite against this possibility.The RN continues to face controversy, with reports of candidates appearing in old photos wearing Nazi symbols and making racist comments. This has led to some candidates being asked to withdraw from the race, further complicating the party’s electoral prospects.As the election approaches its final stage, the outcome remains uncertain. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition is expected to secure between 159 and 185 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp is projected to win 110-135 seats. This distribution could potentially lead to a fragmented National Assembly, forcing parties to consider unprecedented coalitions or face potential governmental gridlock.
Key points
- Recent polls suggest the National Rally may not secure an absolute majority in the French National Assembly.
- Over 200 candidates have withdrawn to form a ‘republican front’ against the far-right.
- Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has refused to give specific voting instructions but warns against an RN majority.
- The election outcome remains uncertain, with potential for a fragmented National Assembly.
Contradictions👾While some sources emphasize the effectiveness of the ‘republican front’ against the RN, others suggest that the fragmentation between different political forces remains deep, potentially limiting the impact of these alliances.
