As France approaches the second round of legislative elections on July 7, the political landscape remains tense and unpredictable. The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella, is projected to win between 190 and 220 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, falling short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. This development comes despite the RN’s strong performance in the first round, where they secured a significant victory.In response to the RN’s surge, over 200 candidates from left-wing and centrist parties have withdrawn from the race, forming a ‘republican front’ to block the far-right’s path to power. This strategic move has reshaped the electoral map, reducing the number of three-way races and increasing head-to-head contests.Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has taken a nuanced stance, urging voters to unite against the RN while refusing to give specific voting instructions for the second round. Attal stated, ‘On Sunday evening, what’s at stake in the second round is to do everything so that the extreme right does not have an absolute majority’. However, he emphasized that he would not impose a coalition on voters that they did not choose.The election campaign has been marked by numerous incidents, including an attack on government spokesperson Prisca ThĂ©venot and her team. The political landscape has become increasingly fragmented, raising concerns about the potential for an ungovernable France.As the election approaches its final stage, the outcome remains uncertain. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance is expected to secure between 159 and 183 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp is projected to win 110-135 seats. This distribution could potentially lead to a fragmented National Assembly, forcing parties to consider unprecedented coalitions or face potential governmental gridlock.
Key points
- The National Rally is projected to win 190-220 seats, short of the 289 needed for a majority.
- Over 200 left and center candidates have withdrawn to prevent RN victories.
- Prime Minister Gabriel Attal urges voters to unite against the RN but refuses to give specific voting instructions.
- The election outcome remains uncertain, with potential for a fragmented National Assembly.
Contradictionsđź‘ľWhile some sources report that the RN is leading in polls, others suggest they will fall short of a majority.
This discrepancy might be due to different polling methodologies or the impact of strategic withdrawals.
